That's blown it!

Noooooooooooooooooooo. After what can best be described as a "tricky week" the best chance of a really good day has gone. Newcastle races are off due to frost. This would be bad enough on a normal week but with the late start of the Kempton races, it has torn a knife through the card today. I just have to hope that the others races can deliver something so I can salvage something on the year on year comparative totals. I estimate that is around the 16th meeting lost to the weather this year. It has not been a good one from that perspective.

Have a tipple with the Hennessy

Saturdays card sees a couple of interesting meetings. The Hennessy at Newbury and the Fighting fifth at Newcastle. I have fond memories of the big race at Newbury, it has treated me well.

Two years ago I stood up at the IX investor show at Olympia in London and traded it live, definitely a pressure moment for sure! I didn't need to worry, as I did OK on the day and completely trounced the big race of the day. I earned £250 for less than ten minutes work on the race with a bank of only £1k, much to the astonishment of the audience. It wasn't the result that was satisfying but more the fact that yet again, after several similar events, it was defining proof that I don't wasn't talking rubbish! In a world fill of charlatans and fakes it proved hard to convince people that trading on horses was viable, especially to an audience of investors. Thank fully after lots of live trading, countless magazine articles and appearances across the world the message was sinking in and this was more icing on the cake. Each year I have done better on this day that previous years so today I face another pressure moment as I attempt to beat last year. It's going to be a tricky task.

Remember though it's not just the big races that throw up opportunities. Keep focusing on every race as an individual opportunity as good trades can strike at any moment in any race as this image shows. Good luck this weekend!

Lay the draw - Does it work?

Probably like yourself, I get a dozen systems drop into my mailbox each week from the snake oil salesmen. Often they go along the lines of if you do this and that, at this time then you too can make millions like me. All for £37, but hurry I am only selling a small number.

One of the most popular soccer systems out there is the lay the draw system. Lay the draw and back it after the first goal goes in or vairents thereof. But does this work?

Lots of debate has raged about this for ages but here are a couple of things that can clearly define in your mind whether or not it works.

First, I can predict the price of a draw to an accuracy of 99.9%, I only need a margin of 0.10% to break even over the year. I owe this accuracy to my, ultimately successfully, quest to win the football pools many years ago. I still continue to push for a higher percentage not just on the draw but on all aspect of the soccer market.

Second, Soccer Mystic encapsulates years of research into a simple tool. It can give you a very good guess at what happens when a goal is scored and when, in terms of minutes. This sort of shifts the argument of whether something works or not to match specific criteria and this is where Soccer Mystic really shines. Fire it up, point it at a match and it will take into account all of the subtle variations that occur from one match to another and how they influence what happens when the match gets underway. In short, if you are trying to implement a strategy in a match Soccer Mystic is the only tool available in the world that will help you frame your risk and reward.

I design it to help people really understand the potential risk and reward they would get trading on soccer matches. It can forecast match odds, correct score and over / under markets and is a must for anybody straying near these markets.

Here's the punchline, for a limited time only we are giving Soccer Mystic away for free to any trialist or subscriber to Bet Angel. It's a very clever and unique product and for free, when combined with our competitive pricing on Bet Angel, it's a no brainer.

To learn more about it, click here and to download it click here

A good start for a clear mind

After yesterdays debacle, which resulted in my first daily losing day since May 14th, I decided to head off for an early session at gym this morning. I am fortunate enough to live near an excellent facility and thrashed out my frustration in a varitey of forms. Hey, it wouldn't be so bad if I it was my fault would it? After a sauna and shower I was back behind my desk fully refreshed.

It seems to have worked as I managed £141 on the second race at Newbury and spirits have been lifted with some good trading. Still going to cost me on the week as I am already over £1500 worse off this week than the same week last year but hopefully I should be able get something out of a good card at Newbury.

Tonights ECL football ratings

Most goals: -

RANK	Home Team	Away Team
1	Anorthosis	W Bremen
2	Shakhtar	FC Basel
3	Atl Madrid	PSV
4	Inter	Panathinaikos
5	Liverpool	Marseille
6	Sp Lisbon	Barcelona
7	CFR Cluj	Roma
8	Bordeaux	Chelsea

Strongest home team: -

RANK	Home Team	Away Team
1	Inter	Panathinaikos
2	Liverpool	Marseille
3	Shakhtar	FC Basel
4	Atl Madrid	PSV
5	Sp Lisbon	Barcelona
6	Anorthosis	W Bremen
7	CFR Cluj	Roma
8	Bordeaux	Chelsea

Shafted - Again!!!

No, no, no, no, no!!!

The 12:50 at Wetherby failed to be suspended by Betfair today. I had an order in at SP to settle at the off. Of course Betfair have now decided to rewind the clock and void all bets after the off. and mysteriously my SP bet was also voided. It looks like they will 'assume' I had a bet and will ignore the fact I turned it to SP and I will lose a packet based on the winner of the race. It is so frustrating when this happens as you can get completely stuffed. Funny how your big positive never wins on these occasions! To compound issues the Chepstow race looks like it will be off late now due to a loose horse.

Unless I can put in a good performance on the day it is likely I will end up negative. I hardly ever have a negative day and its usually only issues like these that cause them. Bit of a mare really especially given that the premium charge leaves my account today as well!

Now to refocus and get going again.

Kauto Calamity

Kauto Star's connections dream of a third win at Haydock came crashing down on Saturday along with Denmans odds to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup it would seem. Kauto took a crunching fall to effectively end his chance to win the race and rank outside 'Snoopy Loopy' collected the prize.

Probably the best trade of the day was to lay Kauto for the Cheltenham Gold cup. His odds shot out on this defeat.

A tale of two trades

Sometimes trading is about not making a mistake. On this day, I couldn't understand why I couldn't get something to move in my direction only to realise, too late, that there was a huge drifter further down the field. My mistake was not paying enough attention to the full market. I lost a bundle by not checking and blindly going about my business. Doh!

Later on I made another "mistake", I hung on late to get something filled and went in running. Sounds dangerous but if you know what you are doing its ok. On this occasion I did intend to take it in running. As luck moved against me earlier it repaid me with interest this time. I tried to get something filled at 16's and to my suprise it got matched at average odds of 41. A nice end to the day!

Never beat yourself up too much if things go wrong. Stay around long enough and over time all these sorts of things balance out.

Tis the season to be jolly

It's that time of year when parties become a regular occurrence, the shops start their sales early and we all try to be nice to our relatives. I was fortunate enough to attend another function on Thursday night, many thanks for the hospitality I received. It was basically a Rugby Union evening with various glitterati from that world. By a coincidence, on the same table as I, was a Bet Angel customer! I'd like to say hi to Mark and congratulations to him for winning the signed 2003 world cup winning shirt by Jason Robinson. Not particularly appropriate for a person of South African patronage but a good win none the less. A good evening was had by all.

Kauto Star is back

I felt last weekend could be good and it was. Cheltenham lived up to its promise and delivered the goods in what would have been a quiet week. I successfully crashed in one of my biggest race totals for year last weekend and most of the other races went pretty well. I have put a more modest example on this post. It looks like the jumps season is well and truly back and with it some of the best jumpers.

Kauto Star made an impressive return recently at Down Royal, with a comfortable victory. Paul Nicholl's runner returns this weekend in the Lancashire Chase, now renamed after the sponsors, and is a very short price. After the Gold Cup turned out to be a bit of a let down last year , lets hope Denman and Kauto Star can produce a classic next March.

Kauto Star's short price will make this race very difficult to trade, I've no doubt I'll have a good crack at it though. With such a short field and price it really boils down to whether even more money will come for the favourite or against it. Not much else will matter in this market. Good luck if you have a go at this one, there should be lots of money in the market in the run up to this race.

Talking of money, the Scoop 6 jackpot on the tote has reached lottery proportions this weekend. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and what effect that will have on the market. I've been doing my maths behind the scenes and while I wouldn't usually touch the tote with a barge pole, it has set my mind in motion. I sense a lot of casual punters will have a go at the weekend, but I suspect, given my train of thought, a lot of not so casual punters will as well. It's too late for me to do anything in particular on this occasion but I have firm idea of what I will do next time. For this weekend it will be a purely paper exercise. Good luck if you have a punt on the scoop 6 this weekend, the prize fund certainly makes it worth a go.

Fed up with SP manipulation

I really think Betfair really need to rename SP. So often it never resembles starting price at all! Today I was having trouble getting filled on the favourite in the last race at Ascot. As you can see from the graph it went from 6's to 40's, Just before the 'off', which as far as SP is concerned is about 6 seconds different from the real off. It cost me around £140, which was annoying, but not much in the scheme of things. It's not me I am concerned about but I feel desperately sorry for people who got thumped on that or anything else for that matter. I took a risk, but knew that it should be minimal on a jumps race. I hadn't considered the impact that a difficult start from the favourite would make, especially when he was reluctant to jump. Another lesson learnt but I feel strongly the term "Starting Price" should be reviewed or people made more aware of the problems with this mechanism.

Ascot racecourse - half price tickets

For those that would like to go to the races as well as trade them I have received an offer from Ascot racecourse for half price tickets. If you are interested in going, book here and when you order quote 'OOM' as the promotional code. Offer is valid for Sat 22nd Nov, 20th Dec, 14th and 17th January.

Sandown park to be renamed Betfair park

Betfair have agreed a sponsorship deal with the Melbourne Racing Club to have the Sandown Park Racecourse rebranded as Betfair Park.

Along with the name change, Betfair gained on-course presence via signage and race sponsorship involvement at Sandown and Caulfield Racecourses. The deal will also allow Betfair to promote in the days following up to races at events through spring to autumn.

The sponsorship officially begins on Saturday.

“In establishing this new relationship with Betfair, we fully acknowledge and respect both Tabcorp and the current wagering model,” said Warran Brown, Melbourne Racing Club’s chief executive. “The TAB since its privatization has been the financial backbone of the Victorian racing industry and will so remain. But this sponsorship arrangement recognizes the additional revenue opportunities for racing by embracing technology and innovation.

Long weekend / Best trading market ever?

Well another day over and what an excellent one it was. Cheltenham is living up to its expectations and I am thankful for it's presence; the rest of the card didn't really deliver much at all. I managed to get one of my biggest ever single race totals today which was immensely pleasing. It's really difficult to do that now as I have done so many races in my time, many tens of thousands. So getting a top result is always a fantastic feeling as I need to wind behind me to bag a decent result. Unfortunately this means I can't resist trading this Sunday. With the quality at Cheltenham set to continue I won't be able to put the mouse down.

An important note with this post, Horse racing isn't the sport that generated the title to, its the tennis market.

As I have mentioned before Andy Murray has recently been the tennis traders dream and he served up another treat this week against Federer. I was using the match to write an article about tennis and to document some work on it. I am now kicking myself that I wasn't trading it! Both players traded as low as 1.11 before Murray went on to win. The swings were amazing and the stuff of trading legend. I'd love to post up the article but unfortunately I am not allowed to under the publishing rights but I should be able to document some more tennis stuff fully when the new season starts.

SP Manipulation

I mentioned a couple of posts down about using SP to exit but there are some caveats I should insert. As I have mentioned before SP actually isn't a starting price at all but a price generated a few seconds AFTER the start of the race. As such it is open to manipulation. Take this evenings race at Wolverhampton. Just before the off on the TV the price, which had been bumping around 2's, shot out to 2.50. SP settled at 2.44 way way off the true starting price. Shemali went on to win and now Betfair can report a significant improvement on the bookies starting price of around 2.00. This tends to happen most often on flat races but it's so common its stick out like a sore thumb. At Cheltenham today there were no such issue. As such I recommend use of SP sparingly.

Very tight premiership table

I had a look at the matches today and one thing that struck me was just how important each game is at the moment. A win for Sunderland could catapult them from second to bottom to unlikely 10th place. While it would require all the others above them to not get a result it just shows how tight the premiership is and what a huge incentive there is this afternoon for three points.

Fast pictures without an exchange shop

I know I have covered this in more depth elsewhere on the blog but if you want to get fast pictures you only need to look to this week. Channel 4 racing has been covering Cheltenham and also today, Wetherby. When you analyse the pictures from channel 4 they are two seconds ahead of Racing UK, that's not far off being on the course. For the best pictures you need the BBC to cover the racing then that's a good as being there. One caveat is that you need to view the pictures straight from the aerial, i.e. no routing through another receiver like a sky box. Else you could be inducing a delay again.

Pictures are useful for seeing what's going on, on course. But for pre-race traders there isn't a significant benefit from the extra couple of seconds a faster feed would get. If you think you need that extra couple of seconds then it probably means you are getting out too late. I often leave it late to get out, which generally isn't recommended, but with things like SP available on Bet Angel there isn't actually a massive need to leave it to the last second to exit. You can always turn the order to an SP order if need be.

Frustrating....

What a frustrating week this is proving to be so far! Usage problems with Betfair thanks to a errant API and today the medics get stuck in the mud at Ludlow so the races are clashing. This isn't going to be a great week by the look of it. But take heart because at least we still have Cheltenham on the way. This is one of the weekends that I would consider trading on Sunday as with a three day meeting on at Cheltenham it will be a good warm up for some decent NH racing. I may also make up lost ground form the start of the week.

Masters Tennis

First win of the day came before a ball had been hit. Andy Roddick pulled out and this appeared to be well publised on various sports sites before people realised that he had. Only when it was mentioned on Sky Sports 1 did Betfair suspend the market and pull Roddick from the list. Easy money for many by the look of it.

Onto the Murray vs. Simon match today and some of the break odds for the first set: -

Murray first set 2-0 : Murray odds = 1.20
Simon first set 2-0 : Murray odds = 1.72

If Simon breaks at 4-3 to Simon, the odds on Murray will jump from 1.49 to 2.03!!!

Good luck, it should be an interesting match.

Why Bet Angel works even if the API doesn't!

Today we witnessed Betfair's API foul up after last nights upgrade. Some time ago we made the conscious decision to allow Bet Angel users to continue to use the site even if the API failed. We did this for a simple reason.

Lots of people use the software for real on a daily basis and are reliant on us providing the best possible service. Therefore, we always think about what could go wrong as well as what could go right. Allowing users to continue to interface to Betfair even with an API failure is the result of some of that work.

That time of year again

Ah, summer, what there was of it, has passed and we are now in that transitory period on horse racing toward the fully fledged jumps season. The card is littered with, well, less inspiring races and the evening has closed in. At least that means I get two evenings off a week from watching the racing. In fact often I don't bother with the remainder of the week in the evening either.

If you are struggling then do not dispair, after so long in the market I have seen that the market does have some seasonality about it. I can clearly pick days, weeks and months where records will definately not be set! That said, the Saturday before last I did have a record day, but that's another story.

The winter months on the horse racing can be hard but there are some highlights. So if you are finding it tough, just keep it simple and don't expect miracles during the poorer weeks.

Incredible finish to F1 season

He's won, on he hasn't, yes he has. I don't think anybody knew immediately what had happened, the commentators, the drivers, the pit. It was such a chaotic finish I didn't know whether to cheer or cry. In the end I jumped out of my chair and sent it flying to the floor, Hamilton was the champion. In the dying moments you could have laid Massa at 1.10 and Hamilton for the same amount easily. What an amazing way to finish a season!

Laying the field is a generically good strategy for tight or uncertain outcomes. If you lay the field in a horse race at 2.00, you need two horses to trade at that price to break even. If three come in you would make a 50% profit. Next manager markets, knockout competitions all favour the lay the field strategy. Use the manual bet area in Bet Angel and you can lay the field at your nominated price with just a couple of clicks of the mouse. With minimum stakes so low have a play with this strategy on the horse racing in-play, its great fun.

Backing Biden

As the US goes to the vote there is something odd going on in the markets. Well I say odd it could have a perfectly rational explanation but it has caught my eye. In the next president market, money is coming for Joseph Biden, Senator Obama's running mate and potential vice president of the US.

For Biden to be the next president it means that Obama doesn't make it to the podium to accept the nomination, shudder the thought. I guess that market participants feel that laying Obama is not as sensible as backing Biden in an effort to discount this possibility. For the moment is remains remote at 350ish to one or about 0.30% chance of something like that happening. But the thing that was curious was that £1250 was traded at 1000's. This may just represent confusion over when the market is settled. If there was a long time to settlement then it is likely to be a risk premium but the rules seem to suggest it will be settled before inauguration.

During the last election I stayed up to participate but this time round things look well decided before I head to bed. With a 20 hour day behind me yesterday it seems I am headed for an early night and will have to learn about the next president tomorrow morning.

Melbourne cup

Well that was a big surprise, the whole card went much better than I expected. Unfortunately I made a mess of getting a screen shot of the final race I did. So you will just have to guess what I did on that but it was well above my expectations, as was the day. I traded a few other races while I was waiting for the big ones and was quite surprised how well that went also. No big totals or volume similar to the UK on those races but I never really felt under threat. It looks like Aussie racing on Betfair has come of age! The downside is it looks like I may be getting up earlier in the morning. For me that's a problem I am night owl not a lark.

3AM Wake up call

Well today is the day for the 'Race that stops the nation' the Melbourne Cup. I first did the Melbourne Cup three years ago and slept in the office to make sure I didn't miss the biggest race in Australia. This year I wasn't sure whether it would be worth getting up in the early hours given that the breeders cup was below expectations. Sat here working late though, I have managed to do some of the early races and they are going rather well. So I have decided to work through the night and nip over to Flemington park every 45 minutes to trade. I may cat nap between races to try and avoid losing too much sleep. A lie in is a certainty later this morning!!

Next US President

I love laying small prices. It's amazing how often very small prices get turned over. Sometimes the logic is not clearly definable but it often relies on the ability of people to get too optimistic about something. The difficulty with implementing this strategy is that people love to win and laying at low prices is all about losing!! You will need to rack up quite a few losses before you get your big win.

One of my favourite quotes came from the US presidential election. Bill Clinton, handing over the presidency said 'The people of America have spoken, we just don't know what they have said yet'. In the end Bush beat Gore to win that one after a recount in what would have been a great trading market. Four years later Bush won again, but at one point John Kerry looked certain to be the winner. It was only as the votes came in and night wore on that people worked out that voters told the media one thing and voted differently when they got to the polling booth, see the illustration.

Obama is the red hot favourite to win, by a country mile, but odd things can and will happen, even if not on this occasion and I am tempted with a lay. At such a short prices I may get the chance to trade out at some point between now and his official inauguration as the next president.