Next US President

I love laying small prices. It's amazing how often very small prices get turned over. Sometimes the logic is not clearly definable but it often relies on the ability of people to get too optimistic about something. The difficulty with implementing this strategy is that people love to win and laying at low prices is all about losing!! You will need to rack up quite a few losses before you get your big win.

One of my favourite quotes came from the US presidential election. Bill Clinton, handing over the presidency said 'The people of America have spoken, we just don't know what they have said yet'. In the end Bush beat Gore to win that one after a recount in what would have been a great trading market. Four years later Bush won again, but at one point John Kerry looked certain to be the winner. It was only as the votes came in and night wore on that people worked out that voters told the media one thing and voted differently when they got to the polling booth, see the illustration.

Obama is the red hot favourite to win, by a country mile, but odd things can and will happen, even if not on this occasion and I am tempted with a lay. At such a short prices I may get the chance to trade out at some point between now and his official inauguration as the next president.