Backing Biden

As the US goes to the vote there is something odd going on in the markets. Well I say odd it could have a perfectly rational explanation but it has caught my eye. In the next president market, money is coming for Joseph Biden, Senator Obama's running mate and potential vice president of the US.

For Biden to be the next president it means that Obama doesn't make it to the podium to accept the nomination, shudder the thought. I guess that market participants feel that laying Obama is not as sensible as backing Biden in an effort to discount this possibility. For the moment is remains remote at 350ish to one or about 0.30% chance of something like that happening. But the thing that was curious was that £1250 was traded at 1000's. This may just represent confusion over when the market is settled. If there was a long time to settlement then it is likely to be a risk premium but the rules seem to suggest it will be settled before inauguration.

During the last election I stayed up to participate but this time round things look well decided before I head to bed. With a 20 hour day behind me yesterday it seems I am headed for an early night and will have to learn about the next president tomorrow morning.