Andy Murray the tennis traders dream!

Andy Murray put in another virtuoso performance in the US open to first almost crash to a spectacular defeat, only to recover dramatically to snatch a win from the jaws of defeat. Only two points away from defeat Murray rallied once again to win 6-7 (5-7) 4-6 7-6 (7-5) 6-1 6-3.

Increasingly Murry is looking like a true top ranking player. One quality required to achieve this is the ability to win even when you shouldn't. Repeatedly Murray seems perfectly capable of doing this. On top of this this sort of behaviour also makes for fantastic trading opportunities!

Finally bagged the big one!!

When do a talk I always open with a little discussion about the market in general and the efficiency in the market. For that reason there are a common number of positions I take that mean I should expect a bonus now and again. Today that bonus came in!

Laying 1.01 shots expecting them to get turned over is a common occurrence but a horse winning a race where it started the race at decimal odds of 1000 is exceptional, in running less so. The fact is a lot of these horses should be trading at much higher odds, but quite a few are also badly priced in either direction.

Its long been an aim of mine to bag a 999-1 shot as they are so rare and as the highest odds available it would definitely be something for the scrap book. I am overjoyed that I finally managed to do it. The horse I have to thank is 'Bermondsy Bob' which ran at the 16:35 at Salisbury. When it won I ran around the room like a lunatic. In vain it turns out as my celebrations were crushed moments later when I was told it had gone to a stewards enquiry. Was I about to be denied?

To ensure it didn't end badly, when the market re-opened for the stewards, I hedged out on the other horse that could have taken the win. A previous race had its winner turned over in the stewards room, so with that fresh in my mind, I didn't leave this one to fate. As it turned out it didn't matter abut it was probably the biggest greening up I will ever do on a race. I hope a few others caught the upside on this. I have mentioned countless times that it would happen, I just couldn't tell you when.

As for the other side of the book I seriously doubt there were many 999-1 layers without positions that would have mitigated a lot of that risk, even if they did its a very rare occurrence so hopefully their money management would have ensured survival.

Bank holiday bonanza

Bank Holiday race cards are fraught with difficultly. Lots of races, generally low quality, going off one after another. Picking and choosing your targets is spectacularly difficult and I often wonder
whether they are worth the time and effort. Also, you need to have a break and working bank holidays could be argued as a poor use of time, either that or your have turned into a compulsive gambler.

This time round we were more fortunate. Where the weather killed us last week it helped out on Monday. With two meetings off, the card look much more useful than with a full card and that's the way it worked out. There were some good opportunities in there as well. I managed an excellent result at Kempton overall, of which the following was my favourite. Drifting from 4's to 6's is a 200% return on a position on its own but, as you can see on the chart, this often doesn't occur in a straight line, on this occasion I managed to call things just right.

The week that almost wasn't

Well that was a 'interesting' week. You wouldn't expect summer to create so many problems, but given last years summer, I guess it wasn't exactly unexpected! It's just that this year the timing was so much worse than last year. For most of the week I thought I was headed for a very poor week, if not the worse for the last couple of years. Thank fully the re-arranged fixtures on Friday and Saturday meant I could really get stuck into a few things and ended the week well. As normal, a bad start didn't mean a bad week.

I wasn't sure how they re-arranged cards would work as the shuffling at Cheltenham earlier this year pretty much killed the additional races when crunched into other days. The York fixtures seemed to perform ok. It did take a bit of getting used to though as I managed to lose £133 on the first race. My worse loss for some time and very unusual. That unnerved me a bit but a few races later and I had got the measure of the market and things turned around very firmly in my favour.

Now the week is over we can consign it to history and focus on getting the best out of the the transitional period from flats to jumps and evening to AW evening racing. I can also leave my desk and get out of the house for a bit! Summer has been excellent and much better than I forecasted but it's a relief that this busy period is over and I can start getting a life.

Juddmonte Joke!

Well I say joke, it wasn't very funny! After a tough week where opportunities were difficult to come by I was really hoping for a storming end to the week, It almost ended in disaster.

There were a number of target races I had in mind for Friday and Saturday. I decided I would let rip on each to try and get a better result on the week, mainly because most of it had been wiped out by the weather. One of those was the Juddmonte.

It may surprise some of you but I actually do two things that would seem very alien to a lot of people, especially traders. I bet at SP and take positions in running deliberately. I feel the horror expressed over the ether at the thought of these things. However, If you think intelligently there are actually a number of reasons why you would want to do this. However, there are risks.

My taste for SP betting has been quenched quite a bit by the problems I have seen with slow or errant starters. People with faster pictures are deliberately manipulating prices at SP and this has curtailed my enthusiasm for this type of betting. If Betfair corrected this error my volume would triple or quadruple to substantial numbers, as it is I careful pick and chose my targets now on much lower volume.

Anyhow, the point being, that on Saturday Betfair failed to turn the Juddmonte in running and this must have caused complete carnage on the biggest race of the week. On this occasion I got away with it but I guess others were not so lucky. The explanation was 'technical reasons' but little other information was given. I can't think what technical reason would cause all races other than the biggest of the week to go in running correctly? All mention of this error has now disappeared from the Betfair site, but thanks to this post it will not be forgotten.

Bet Brokers in administration

Looks like Bet Brokers business model has failed. I've always been intrigued by this business and couldn't quite understood where it fitted into the modern betting landscape. There was discussion I followed recently that hinted that they struggled with the collapse of credit markets but I am not sure where this entered their business? This was their angle on their place in the market: -

"As an independent broker we place bets on behalf of our clients quickly and efficiently securing the best odds for the amount requested. One account with Betbrokers means one call to over 200 bookmakers and exchanges."

I went to visit their offices at the very expensive Canary Wharf but still couldn't fit in my mind exactly where they would drive enough revenue to support an operation like the one they had. I guess there is demand for this sort of thing but given the nature of modern markets and scale of their set up, it didn't seem to add up. So it's not a great surprise they have gone.

Bumper racing day

Today should be interesting at Newbury & Newmarket. I had to say though that these sorts of days are often difficult to trade. Races packed in can be great fun but they can also dilute the amount of money in the market. At the end of the day there is only so much money to go around so it is likely it will be spread thinner today. Even with that fact in place hopefully today and tomorrow make up for some of the lost ground this week.

Top Ebor races to be saved

It's looking increasingly likely this evening that quite a few races will be saved from the York meeting which was abandoned this morning. Some of the better quality races have been moved to Goodwood, Newmarket and Newbury. Details are still a bit sketchy this evening but it looks like a number of the races will be shoehorned into the other meetings on Friday and Saturday. That should help mitigate some of the lost cards but as they will be squeezed into the other meetings the markets are unlikely to be anywhere near as strong. Still it's better than a complete loss.

Football friendlies

I've studied football matches now for nearly three decades but one thing that still foxes me is friendlies. Part of my approach to the markets is one of capital preservation and that is where most people should start. Part of the process of capital preservation is knowing when you are outside of your abilities. I can tell you a lot about a football match, in great detail, but friendlies are a big of a mystery to me. I guess one of the reasons is that it's difficult to work out the motivation players have in these games and also the tactics the manager will use. As such I will skip these matches, they get filed in my 'too hard' category.

For that reason I'll be skipping the England vs Czech Republic this evening.

When a picture is a thousand words

Nightmare scenario for Ebor

Oh dear, this looks worse then Cheltenham now and it will blow a hole in everyones P&L.

My hedging idea ensures that I profit for tomorrow now, but I would much prefer to be on the races themselves. This is a terrible way to end the summer. Its very unfortunate that the last big race meeting of the summer is going to be washed out. Last year we had a week destroyed by the weather but it didn't really have as big an impact as Ebor which is much higher profile. After two really dreadful summers the UK surely can't repeat this next year?!?

Hedging the weather (a bit)

Here's a novel idea. If York goes ahead tomorrow I know roughly how much I should achieve on the day. As York is an uncertainty I have just backed 'no racing' for the meeting tomorrow, there doesn't seem to be much money in the market. I need a few layers!

Net result, No racing means I will profit and if the racing goes ahead I will profit, though slightly less. Should still get a result though.

Lost property..

The UK seems to have lost its summer. If anybody finds it can they please return it as soon as possible?

Last week I did fewer races than last year for the first time this year. This week will be a similar story. The latest and biggest causlty is the Ebor meeting at York which is a bit of a disaster. Ebor went well last year and the adandonment will put me 100% down on Tuesday year on year, if further days are lost the month is going to look very poor.

It must be a massive dissapointment for York and all involved with it. I can't imagine how much it will cost the course and related parties. It all echos of Cheltenham earlier in the year. I managed to repair all the damage at Cheltenham but York is looking far less certain. Here's hoping we don't lose too many more days.

Remarkable steamer

Great Leighs was the first new racecourse to open in the UK for some time. One thing I have noticed about Great Leighs is the large number of remarkable market movements. Last night there was another on King Canute. Matched for small amounts at 70 it came in with volume from 10's to start at 2.30, though it's notable the SP returned 3.11!

Which ever starting point you take this was a HUGE gamble, ultimately one that wasn't landed. Such is the extent of the price change it was listed on Betfair as the second to last runner, quite remarkable.

Manchester mare!

What a great start for Mark Hughes, not! Boardroom chaos caused much press speculation as to whether he would step up to the task and now he has, he gets an absolute mare of a result in the early rounds of the UEFA cup. Rangers had a mare in the last round but this wasn't unexpected in my books as Liverpool struggled against the same team a couple of years ago or so. City though were woeful.

The most difficult time of the year to predict results in football matches are the start and end of the season. The start of the season can offer pointers though as a lot of top sports rely not just on skill, but mindset also. I imagine Man City players are not feeling great at the moment and it will take a really good performance against Aston Villa on Saturday to make them feel a bit better. When competing at the highest level your mind and motivation can make a huge difference between the fine line of winning and losing. I have City's card marked at the moment and I am also watching what happens at Hughes old club Blackburn. I am not convinced that Ince can cut it at a top level but I can't really make a judgement on that till I see some evidence. I'll also be looking for one of the three promoted teams to outperform, which one though I can't tell yet you are the moment, its just too early.

Tough week...

After a generally good summer where last years totals are getting toasted this week has proved a lot tougher, but for a very good reason, disruption to the racing card. With quite a few meetings being hit by the weather a lot of potential has been lost to the rain and there has also been a knock on effect to the rest of the card and also on the field sizes. Lets hope the next few weeks are a bit more stable. Lets also hope there is no disruption at the Ebor meeting next week.

One curiosity that I am noticing more and more is that history is repeating itself, or as that quote went, not repeating but echoing. I appear to be seeing that is it increasingly easy to spot a good or bad day well in advance. The way I am doing it is by looking at the previous year. In reality this shouldn't be possible but the regularity of repetition is quite pronounced. I'll do some more research on this in the winter.

Radcliffe risking it

Well I wish her luck, but having been a long distance runner in my days I wouldn't be tempted to run a marathon when injured and ill prepared. That said, I never got to have a go at the Olympics so that may have swayed things!

I guess its a function of Radcliffe knowing this could be her last chance at an Olympic medal. There is no knowing if she would be in contention in 2012 but there should be hope given the longevity of a long distance runner.

The reason I wouldn't do it, or at least have a massive think about it, is I made a similar mistake some time ago and it put paid to my running for ever. I was injured but desperate to made a 10 mile race that I had run every year since inception. Like a fool I ran it and tried hard but it really flared up the injury to the point where I now have to hobble around for five minutes when I wake up in the morning. In short, by choosing to run the race, rather than let the injury heal, it ruined me. I really hope this is not the last race she runs, but good luck to her now she has decided to run it. I'm sure she has had some good advice and I hope the gamble pays off.

Expecting Ebor

Ah the British summer. Nice to see the afternoon card reduced to one meeting on Tuesday after the persistent rain waterlogged Market Rasen. We are still better than last year though, when many meetings were lost to worse conditions. The water logging had me browsing around the Met Office web site last night looking for some sort of stats on annual rainfall, it feels like its getting worse during the summer. Its probably not it probably due to the fact that I ust feel it more now!

This week wasn't going to be a strong week on the horse racing markets, given that Ebor is arriving next week. Large parts of the card look generally unappealing and could have done without the rain, but I'll be sure to tough it out. At the back of my mind I am really waiting for Ebor and, subject to the weather, we should be in for a feast of racing for the whole week. Last year I did very well at Ebor, in fact I think I did too well and may struggle to get near that result again. I must have been busy as I have few screenshots from last year but looking at the prior year that seems to have gone OK as well. Here's hoping this year lives up to expectations!

Magnificent Murray

Two years after beating Federer at the Cinny Masters Andy Murray finally managed to get the same masters title under his belt and move up to an all time six in the world rankings. The final showed that there is plenty of room for improvement. Djokovic never managed to put any real pressure on Murray's serve but Murray still had to battle out a 7-6 7-6 victory. The game should have been long over before the final tie break was played out.

Over the last couple of years I've worked hard to improve my understanding of Tennis and how it is priced and late on in the second set there was some clear opportunities to back Murray at good odds. Due to the scoreline the odds were accurate but it was clear from a dominance and psychological perspective Murray was in the ascendancy. Right near the end of the match, thanks to the two set format, you could have backed Murray at 1.37 when he was only a matter of points away from the title. However, Murray's inability to convert his advantage would have had you sweating now and again. Still, a pleasing chunk of opportunities occurred in the game.

Such is Murray's inconsistency though, that he has subsequently crashed out in Beijing at the first attempt to somebody ranked 71 places below him. Still a work in progress.

The fall of Federer

You couldn't have missed the news that Roger Federer lost again this week and is about to lose his status as the worlds number one tennis player. Cincinatti is not Federers favourite venue, he lost to Murray there two years ago and he also struggled in the prior round against Ginipri (See the Betfair chart). Putting those facts aside, what's behind his slump in form?

Having played a lot of sport when I was young I think I know the answer. I am also confident it applies to most top athletes. In simple terms its psychology and physiology.

Physiology

Most athletes peak around age 25-30. Mechanically speaking, peak athletic ability occurs for men around 28-30 years old. From those ages it's generally downhill all the way. It's not that the mind isn't willing its that the body can't cope. When I started to reach this age I just started training harder and really tried to push the boundaries in the sports I played in. I lost and ended up with one injury after another and I now suffer as a result because I didn't accept that an increased schedule doesn't help when you age. As a consequence it is clear that all athletes peak at some point. From then on younger competitors will pose more of a threat. All atheletes peak at different points and also certain injuries take their toll over time and reduce performance, so it's not a surprise when a champion eventually falters. All of them will at some point. If you have a few rising stars then this effect seems even more prominant, that brings us on to the next point.

Psychology

I was good at sport but a bit of a generalist; In another life I am sure I was a decathelete! I never really had the support to get above county level but I enjoyed my sport and set myself some stiff challenges. In hindsight I didn't set the bar high enough and I achieved a number of my targets quite easily. Knowing that I could never get to the much higher level I lost a bit of ethusiams and my performance waned. I remember watching David Duval push Tiger Woods close in the British Open, a year later he pulled it off and won the event. From that point on his form collapsed. It's remarkable how often you see that, but especially in golf which can punish even the slightest dip in spectacular fashion.

Targets and achievements are important motivators in sport. Beating an opponent, achieving a ranking, or something you dreamed of as a child can really drive a competitior forward. Upward momentum has a dramatic effect on performance. In contrast being at the top and slipping can be a problem. Those shots you used to attack, that flag you could reach suddenly becomes a little harder. Your confidence is dented and knowing your prior performance wasn't as good, or knowing that there is even more on the next shot than before, doesn't help you perform.

You often find atheletes quitting while at the top of their game. From both aspects I have pointed out, this makes sense. It's unlikely that similar heights will continue to be reached in future years and being remembered as a supreme champion writes you into the history books.

From a practical perspective for quite a few years the low backers on Federer have had a field day, but for some time I have recommend laying him. Regardless of his past skill the future is never certain for an athelete and backing at low odds when somebody has been at their peak for some time is a dangerous game. Laying at low odds has limited downside and lots of upside whereas a lot of atheletes experience the opposite effect at the top of their game. Federer still has a lot to offer, but it looks like he is now someway from invincible.

William hill results

You can view the results by clicking here.

In a nutshell gross win was up to almost £500m and net profit was around £150m. Betfair's net profit is around £20m but in reality, if you strip out exceptional items, it is probably a far bit higher. This means Will Hill's net margin is around 30% vs 10% for Betfair, this is a little suprising given the nature of Betfair's business, you would expect Betfair to have higher net margin. It could be that investment is dulling true margin at Betfair and delivering lower margins. One of the interesting thing about sports books is that the core business of betting on sports is not a driver behind growth. It will be interesting to see if Betfair release any stats on their breakdown of business when they next report, it should make interesting reading. As Betfair's business matures it is almost inevitable that they will chase margin, where that margin comes from is another question.