Friday, August 29, 2008

Finally bagged the big one!!

When do a talk I always open with a little discussion about the market in general and the efficiency in the market. For that reason there are a common number of positions I take that mean I should expect a bonus now and again. Today that bonus came in!

Laying 1.01 shots expecting them to get turned over is a common occurrence but a horse winning a race where it started the race at decimal odds of 1000 is exceptional, in running less so. The fact is a lot of these horses should be trading at much higher odds, but quite a few are also badly priced in either direction.

Its long been an aim of mine to bag a 999-1 shot as they are so rare and as the highest odds available it would definitely be something for the scrap book. I am overjoyed that I finally managed to do it. The horse I have to thank is 'Bermondsy Bob' which ran at the 16:35 at Salisbury. When it won I ran around the room like a lunatic. In vain it turns out as my celebrations were crushed moments later when I was told it had gone to a stewards enquiry. Was I about to be denied?

To ensure it didn't end badly, when the market re-opened for the stewards, I hedged out on the other horse that could have taken the win. A previous race had its winner turned over in the stewards room, so with that fresh in my mind, I didn't leave this one to fate. As it turned out it didn't matter abut it was probably the biggest greening up I will ever do on a race. I hope a few others caught the upside on this. I have mentioned countless times that it would happen, I just couldn't tell you when.

As for the other side of the book I seriously doubt there were many 999-1 layers without positions that would have mitigated a lot of that risk, even if they did its a very rare occurrence so hopefully their money management would have ensured survival.