The fall of Federer

You couldn't have missed the news that Roger Federer lost again this week and is about to lose his status as the worlds number one tennis player. Cincinatti is not Federers favourite venue, he lost to Murray there two years ago and he also struggled in the prior round against Ginipri (See the Betfair chart). Putting those facts aside, what's behind his slump in form?

Having played a lot of sport when I was young I think I know the answer. I am also confident it applies to most top athletes. In simple terms its psychology and physiology.

Physiology

Most athletes peak around age 25-30. Mechanically speaking, peak athletic ability occurs for men around 28-30 years old. From those ages it's generally downhill all the way. It's not that the mind isn't willing its that the body can't cope. When I started to reach this age I just started training harder and really tried to push the boundaries in the sports I played in. I lost and ended up with one injury after another and I now suffer as a result because I didn't accept that an increased schedule doesn't help when you age. As a consequence it is clear that all athletes peak at some point. From then on younger competitors will pose more of a threat. All atheletes peak at different points and also certain injuries take their toll over time and reduce performance, so it's not a surprise when a champion eventually falters. All of them will at some point. If you have a few rising stars then this effect seems even more prominant, that brings us on to the next point.

Psychology

I was good at sport but a bit of a generalist; In another life I am sure I was a decathelete! I never really had the support to get above county level but I enjoyed my sport and set myself some stiff challenges. In hindsight I didn't set the bar high enough and I achieved a number of my targets quite easily. Knowing that I could never get to the much higher level I lost a bit of ethusiams and my performance waned. I remember watching David Duval push Tiger Woods close in the British Open, a year later he pulled it off and won the event. From that point on his form collapsed. It's remarkable how often you see that, but especially in golf which can punish even the slightest dip in spectacular fashion.

Targets and achievements are important motivators in sport. Beating an opponent, achieving a ranking, or something you dreamed of as a child can really drive a competitior forward. Upward momentum has a dramatic effect on performance. In contrast being at the top and slipping can be a problem. Those shots you used to attack, that flag you could reach suddenly becomes a little harder. Your confidence is dented and knowing your prior performance wasn't as good, or knowing that there is even more on the next shot than before, doesn't help you perform.

You often find atheletes quitting while at the top of their game. From both aspects I have pointed out, this makes sense. It's unlikely that similar heights will continue to be reached in future years and being remembered as a supreme champion writes you into the history books.

From a practical perspective for quite a few years the low backers on Federer have had a field day, but for some time I have recommend laying him. Regardless of his past skill the future is never certain for an athelete and backing at low odds when somebody has been at their peak for some time is a dangerous game. Laying at low odds has limited downside and lots of upside whereas a lot of atheletes experience the opposite effect at the top of their game. Federer still has a lot to offer, but it looks like he is now someway from invincible.