Bet Angel on TV today!

After last weeks sponsorship of Wolverhampton, we are delighted to announce that we will be sponsoring the entire afternoon racing card at Southwell today, including the £18,000 class 2 feature race of the day. The races will be live on 'attheraces'.

It's a pleasure to make such a positive contribution, which we hope will bring more attention to the market. This can only be a plus for everybody involved. The last race of the day will be the 'Win Bet Angel at win.betangel.com' handicap. So why not visit http://win.betangel.com, register, and put yourself in with a chance of winning a copy!

Best motor sports trade ever?

I made a post with this here a little while ago: -

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2009/03/13/we-are-not-competitive/

I am not skilled at motor racing sports or have a strong enough opinion to trade it regulary, but if a trainer came out and said that a horse was not competitive, you would expect the price to drift quite a bit. That's what I felt would happen in the Formula 1 markets when I heard these comments by McClaren on the state of play on their F1 season. I am amazed it took so long to be discounted into the price of Lewis Hamilton. But looking at the chart you can see his price has drifted considerably since these comments came out, an excellent trade. Lowest price traded was 3.50, current price after testing at the Aussie GP, 10's!!

The most predictable drift ever?

Flat packed

Today we saw the turf flat racing season kick off at Doncaster. Things will start to get busier from here. They turned out to be pretty busy today as well! With the meeting at Nad Al Sheba running at the same time it was a busy day, but one that turned out to be quite tradable as well. Had a rollercoaster day but just like the ride I enjoyed it in the end and just wanted to get on again! Hope you had a good day.

I had a go at a few of the Nad Al Sheba races but only managed to pull out one reasonable result on the 16:40

Flat packed

Today we saw the turf flat racing season kick off at Doncaster. Things will start to get busier from here. They turned out to be pretty busy today as well! With the meeting at Nad Al Sheba running at the same time it was a busy day, but one that turned out to be quite tradable as well. Had a rollercoaster day but just like the ride I enjoyed it in the end and just wanted to get on again! Hope you had a good day.

I had a go at a few of the Nad Al Sheba races but only managed to pull out one reasonable result on the 16:40

Aussies ban Betfair

Betfair CEO Andrew Twaits is outraged the multi-billion dollar company has been blacklisted under the government Internet content filters, a move set to annex tens of millions of dollars in local revenue. Read the full story here.

Bet Angel on TV this evening

As we have previously undertaken, today we will be sponsoring an entire card of racing again. A large number of our customers owe it to the horse racing industry that they exist at all. So it seems a relatively straight forward gesture to return some of that money back into the sport. Obviously we will get some publicity as well!

Anyhow, enjoy the trading at our expenses and if you get any decent trades in, send us a few screenshots to go with the other memorabilia we will collect. We hope you have a good day!

How odds really move

Over many years I've modelled a number of different events to see how odds should move in those particular sports. I actually started doing this some time ago in my attempt to win the football pools. Therefore, the first ever market I tried to model was a football match. Back then I was just hunting for the reasons that a match ended in a draw. Over the years I expanded my knowledge to include a whole range of things and in much more complexity, detail and accuracy than I could ever have imagined. I actually enjoy doing this, regardless of any financial reward.

Somebody phoned me recently and asked me some questions about how odds move in a football match. Their questions surrounded backing 0-0, which incidentally is an very risky proposition. The main issue is that, on average, a goal occurs around every 35-38mins or so (subject to the match you are looking at). But the standard deviation on this is a whooping 25 mins! You would need to be very lucky to time an exit from this trade. Skill or exit strategies don't really figure if you hold your position for any length of time, one goal and you are stuffed! During our conversation I explained something that the caller felt was very odd. So true to my word, here is a video explaining why odds can sometimes behave in a counter intuitive manner in a football match.

Fluke?

Had an unexpected bonus at the weekend. Well I say unexpected, I do hunt for these sorts of opportunities as the effort costs little but the rewards are there if you look hard enough. Sports markets seem to be the sort of place where the harder you look, the luckier you get.

'Little Hotpotch' should go down in history as the one of, if not the worst SP for backers seen yet on Betfair. The SP volume was unusually high on this market. Even stranger was the money on this particular horse. Something was completely broken about this market and especially this selection. A horse at 1000 generally attracts little interest but this horse attracted £5733 on the exchange and £3297 at SP!!!!! The market itself was high by SP standards at nearly 4.7% but the amount on 'Little Hotpotch' was extraordinary, something very odd going on.

Anyhow, the SP seemed to be out of kilter with reality so I put a lay in at SP for a small amount. I should have been matched at 1000 but the lay resolved at just 41.35!! This it one of the most memorable trades in my career.

A fluke, for sure as I didn't guess I would get such a favourable fill. I did figure out that when the market went in running this selection would trade at 1000. Knowing my maximum lay would also be 1000 there seemed little risk. I nearly fell off my chair when I was filled at just over 40.

Iffy start

You could be forgiven for thinking this refers to the week or day, but no, this post is all about using TV pictures to trade. I tend to have at least one TV screen up and running with the volume set at a suitable level. In between poking around on the Bet Angel screen I am always listening to what is happening on course and looking for anything interesting. This week has thrown up lots of opportunities. The one I will highlight is 'Iffy'. This horse was running at Ludlow and it lived up to it's name.

Looking at the pictures, it looked remarkably reluctant to race and after several attempts it did eventually race, but someway behind the other horses. At the first since of recalcitrance the price started to drift and continued to do so till the start of the race, a relatively easy trading opportunity. From that point on the drift took on another dimension as the horse plodded off from the start. Eventually the jockey got 'Iffy' motoring back into contention but it ran out of steam.

This week has thrown up loads of these opportunities and a bit of a classic today when 'King Penda' chucked the jockey twice before eventually starting the race. This caused the price to drift from 5 to 8 at the start. Keeping an eye pictures is a useful way to exploit these sorts of opportunties and expand your trading.

1000-1 winners

Ok, maybe that should be 999-1 winners. Been using the quieter time this week to drift through some data. Over the last two years guess how many winners at 1000 in horse racing have come in?

The answer may surprise you, according to Betfair data its 102 winners. All but one of those drifted to odds of 1000 in running, only one was 1000 before the race started and went on to win. Fortunately I actually bagged that one, but I have been trying for some time it has to be said.

Still, that number of 102 was higher than I suspected.

All things come, to he who waits

Psychology is an important aspect of your activity on the markets. I often feel this is what separates somebody who can't be succesful with somebody who can and also it can lift you from good to great. Having the right mindset makes a big difference. Throughout my life if I see somebody doing well my instinct has always been, "Hmm, that's interesting I wonder what they are doing?". Unfortunately in life you meet many people who do the opposite and would prefer to try and tarnish an achievement than give credit for it. In my experience that's a very destructive way to look at things and shows up an errant mindset. One that will probably lead to a number of incorrect decisions.

I know it sounds corny but having a postivie attitude really does makes a huge amount of difference. As do a number of other traits such as being self critical. While watching Horizon yesterday evening I was interested in some of the comments that were passed through the presenter. I think there are some lessons in there for all of us.

One of the things they talked about was deferred gratification, I found this link by Googling 'Marshmallow experiment' if you are interested. The other thing that caught my attention was the interview with Carol Dweck and her reference to the concept of a 'Growth mindset'. Both interesting concepts and something I am sure will help you in your quest.

Post Cheltenham blues

Well Cheltenham is in the past and we are now back to the regular mix of all sorts of stuff on the horse racing. Suddenly you have to get used to earning in a day what you could have achieved in one race last week! But don't despair as we are now in the ramp up to the flat season. Between now and then though, typically a tougher period awaits.

Not all doom and gloom, just around the corner we have the Aintree grand national meeting and that will throw up interesting opportunities and then a few weeks later we will kick off the flat season with the Guineas meeting. In short there is plenty ahead of us to get excited about, even if this high profile festival is now history for another year.

Don't look back, look forward.

Liverpool at it again

If there is one recurring theme of football betting is has to be never to bet against Liverpool. Endlessly famously for the impossible comeback in Turin, Liverpool seem to constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat at the least likely moment.

Mid week they cost me some money by defeating Real Madrid 4-0. It's not that I didn't expect them to win, I just didn't figure it would be by four goals! Yesterday they humbled the seemingly impervious Man Utd 4-1 at Old Trafford. No amount of stats or research would have thrown up that result for you. Mid week they were priced for a smidgen over 2 goals for the match with a slight advantage over Real. Yesterday was a similar scenario but in reverse, i.e. in favour of Man U, similar result! On this occasion I didn't do anything, given the result midweek and the the extra day Liverpool had to recover.

I think this does show why a succesfull strategy on football really turns out to be a numbers game. While these results are 'odd' from a statistical perspective a delve through the records confirms that the world hasn't suddenly changed it just that these sorts of results stick out more. That said, I'll still reserve my right not to bet against Liverpool.

Golden day ahead

After what has been an excellent week we can look forward to the big day today. Thanks to all the users who have emailed me this with some excellent results and it's great to see some exceptional totals out there. I've always been reluctant to post my figures up as I think they can often set false expectations but it's great to see I was humbled on Tuesday!

Looking at the structure of the Gold Cup today it looks like it could be a significant race today from all perspectives. So I'll be doing my best to pull something out the hat today across the card and on this race. Cheltenham has 'felt' much better this year after last years debacle. I still did better last year on the previous but this year has proved much better than expectations. Lets hope today tops off an excellent week.

Best of luck whatever you are doing and however you are doing it!

We are not competitive

Interesting news coming out of the McLaren camp this week and finally an admission from McLaren on the state of their formula one season.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/7941572.stm

Doesn't seem to be priced into the market at the moment but maybe people are waiting for more concrete evidence to emerge not just from McLaren but the other teams as well. Should be an interesting season.

Cause and effect

Cause and effect refers to the philosophical concept of causality. Causality is about the relationship between one event (called cause) and another event (called effect) which is the direct consequence of the first.

I had a eureka moment at the weekend where I suddenty cottoned on to a fact I had been pursuing for a number of years. I love it when you get those moments, suddenly, all that was foggy becomes crystal clear. You wonder why you couldn't see it before.

It also dawned on my that what everybody is really looking for is, causality or cause and effect. Look in anything hard enough and you will find it. I think this is particulary relevant on a betting market. The following video may help you understand where I am coming from!

SPIN

Solid start despite cock up!

Got off to a solid start on the Cheltenham festival despite a bit of a cock up. Was busy trading the big race of the day when I figured out a lot of my orders were not going in the market. It took me ages to realise that the account I was using didn't have the correct exposure limit! Doh!

It was too late to get the issue fully sorted at that moment in time so I just needed to do the best I could and sort out the issue after the race. It was frustrating as it was going well and I no doubt lost a lot of ground through my inability to put new orders through. Such is life. Ended up on a decent total for the day which gives me confidence for the week. But it could have been so much better! I'd obviously had the same issue up to that point but never realised.

Why not be a robotrader?

For some time Bet Angel has had the capability to link to Excel. It's not just a link, you can custom write tools, views of the market and all manner of wonderful things in a spreadsheet and get it to 'talk' to Betfair vis Bet Angel.

The Microsoft Excel integration not only allows you to view a market in Excelm but also trigger bets from the spreadsheet through Bet Angel. This isn't just simple triggered betting however, we also allow you to send Bet Angel specific functions and bet characteristics using our unique scripting language.

Want to place an offset bet with a ten second fill or kill delay and a trailing stop? No problem. If you want to trade a certain price if something some happens, that's possible. Only place a bet fifteen seconds in-play if the price on the favourite has drifted by a certain amount, that's possible too. In fact just about anything is possible using the spreadsheet capability.

Whether you use the spreadsheet to monitor certain types of activity or to trade automatically its useful. Or why not become a robotrader and use Excel to help you in certain markets. A machine is often quicker to react to the market than a human so get it to enter a trade and you can manage it from there? The possibilities are endless.

Part one of three

Part two of three



Part three of three

Cheltenham tips

After a couple of weeks behind the desk in full trading mode, a good Saturday and Monday behind me I am about as ready as I ever could be for Cheltenham. I just hope it is ready. Last year was really tough and was a big struggle based on the previous year. It felt completely different. I'd love to offer up a prediction for this year but I am afraid I can't. I'll probably have a better idea of how it feels tomorrow evening though. I'll post up if I have any thoughts. Don't take no post as a negative, just use it as an indication that I am too whacked out to post!

One thing you will will notice with the markets at Cheltenham is that there is a lot of money around. This tends to squash price movement and this can be a problem for people used to more volatile markets. If you think about this, rather than viewing it in a negative fashion, it also has some beneficial effects. In more volatile markets it is not uncommon to see a price move from say, 2's to somewhere approaching 3's. That doesn't typically happen in the bigger markets, so you can take on more risk if you wish. It's a high stakes game but one that works wonderfully well if you get it right.

My first objective is to try and get a £100k turnover race through as quickly as possible this week. If I can do that early in the week, I can set myself up for a crack at a record race later in the week. None of that is guaranteed of course but there is no harm in trying!

Don't wear a bikini in winter

Bet Angel has quite a range of features, In total there are seven main areas. While it may seem daunting to use all of them , or you may feel more comfortable sticking to just one screen, you are quite likely to be missing out on some perfectly good strategies if you ignore any of these key areas.

It's important to understand why this is. When we designed Bet Angel it was because of need, it wasn't a marketing exercise or an effort to replace other income. That work continues to this date, in the background we are always testing and prodding the markets for new ideas or to improve performance. This week we are stress testing the latest version during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You have the comfort of knowing we carry the can first, if there are any issues!

People often ask me and other traders what features do they use the most? The simple fact is that each day I can find a use for pretty much all of it. Different markets across the card, the day or the week often require different approaches to maximise the opportunity.

With the Cheltenham festival this week mixed up with a variety of other types of racing, is a perfect time to try some of the other features on Bet Angel. Even if you are not used to them its worth experimenting with them, because they all exist for a reason.

Multi market trading

Further to the introduction to Guardian I highlighted recently, here is a video showing you some multi market trading. In the video we skip backwards and forwards across multiple markets letting Bet Angel manage the trades as we go. Doing this will allow you to get more trades through the market and increase your potential profitability.

Lack of interest makes me gamble

Today the Bank of England will get on with their string pushing efforts in an attempt to revive the economy, they will fail. At the moment all interest rate cuts have done is steal money from savers and they haven't benefited borrowers whose rates remain HIGHER than the same time last year. As savers outnumber borrowers six to one, all the rate cuts seem to have done is impoverish the prudent. With cash now trash, I fancy a gamble with my money.

Nope, I'm not going to lump on a seller at Wolverhampton this evening, I'm going to buy some premium bonds. With the yield on normal savings virtually zero, almost certainly zero after today's MPC meeting; premium bonds seem worth a punt. OK your chance of winning a big prize is very small but if you are going to earn nothing on the money anyway it seems like a bit of a value bet. Especially when you consider you can't lose your stake.

Can you feel it?

Some music to go with the post.

Anyhow, one important aspect of your activity on the market is to try and feel a market. A bit of an odd thing to say but it's pretty important to know if you are doing the right thing. I know what markets should act like and how they should feel and this is one of things I discuss when I do a talk. If a market does not feel right or seems to behaving in a strange manner I immediately pull my stakes back down and try and work them back up. It's no good charging into a market if it isn't responding in the manner you expect.

You can put some science into it. I can forecast how much money is likely to be traded on a race many hours before it has started, I also talk about this at my course. This gives you some measure of whether the market is acting normally. Last week, lots of people emailed me to point out some strange behaviour in the markets which I also noticed. I suspect this was somebody experimenting in the markets. The net result was positive for everybody except the source of this activity I suspect. Things seem to have returned to normal now, but it shows that if you get a good feel for the markets then you can take advantage of these aberrations.

Banking on Gordon

Thanks to Scott Ferguson for pointing out this article on his blog. Ladbrokes have offered a market on the words Gordon Brown uses in his speech in the US.

I would have thought 'Special relationship' is the banker. 'European Union' has to be mentioned, for political reasons. 'Hard working families' looks good value as does 'protectionism' which is almost certain to be mentioned. With the weather dominant on the East coast 'Snow' has to be worth a shot as a comedic opener. However I think the real value bet is 'Keynes', I think Ladbrokes have mis-priced this at 20/1. I studied Keynes and his work a few years ago, read more here. With the BoE likely to drop rates to a mind numbing 0.5% this week in the UK, the only option left to the world leaders to turn this thing around is Keynesian style stimulus. Obama is embarking on this already. Keynes thought interest rates were exercises in string pushing and felt that the world wouldn't have suffered such a depression in the 30's if they had followed a strategy of public works spending, he was also very critical of the protectionism during this period. I don't know how long Gordy has but if it is long enough, you would have thought there was a reasonable chance he would reference Keynes as justification for a number of policies. I think I will have a little punt on some of these.

How to set up multi market trading

One of the unique features of Bet Angel is that it will let you trade multiple markets at the same time. There is nothing complicated to setting up this feature. All you need to do is add the markets you would like to trade to Bet Angel's Guardian feature. 'Guardian' allows Bet Angel to actively monitor your orders in each market and perform certain functions for you automatically.

Add a market to Bet Angel, fire in some orders and Bet Angel will do the rest. Here is a video explaining this feature.

February

If you are a regular reader of the blog you will know that I didn't do a great deal for Febuary for personal reasons.

You will be interested to know however, that I still did almost as well as I did in Feb 2006! Based on the fact I only really did the last week, that shows you the sort of growth that has taken place since then. On my return to work at the end of the month things were pretty settled and fairly normal so I am looking forward to March with much interest. Of course the feature is the Cheltenham meeting. It was spoiled a bit last year by the weather and that made it super tough. I hope that this year is a bit easier. March should see an uptick in your fortunes. I like this time of year as the garden starts growing and it's a good reminder that spring and summer are not far away.

The problem I find, having been in the market for nearly nine years, is that I can't help comparing results with prior years. No matter how clever you get, it is always difficult to compare as many things occur that influence results and shape your results. So try not to get hung up on a bad week or month, they will occur for any number of reasons. It's more important what you achieve over the year. Like wise, don't think you are a god because of a great month.

When you start to think you have it cracked you start to get complacent and that ultimately leads to failure. Seeing others fail or clearly head off down the wrong path acts as a constant reminder to me to keep pushing forward and to be self critical.

Geocaching

Ok, slightly off subject but if you are at a lose end and looking for something to do; or, like me, have three children that want constant entertaining why not have a go a geocaching?

I discovered the joys of geocaching while fiddling with my Iphone. It's basically a worldwide treasure hunt using GPS. I was amazed to know that there are around 8,000 locations within 50 miles of my house. So on Sunday I went out with the children to discover a few of them. It's amazing where some of them are located and you soon realise that you have been walking right past them while hundreds of people have been stopping off and signing in.

For more information visit http://www.geocaching.com/

William hill attempts to raise £350m

I blogged an entry a little while ago about the issues that some companies will have based on the knock on effect from the global financial crisis. Several companies have revolving credit factilities to fund their day to day operations, working capital and forward investment. One of those companies, as previously highlighted, is William Hill.

Typically these facilities are just fine as you go back to the market when the previous agreement runs out and get funding at the current rate. However, with the serious financial problems in the banking system, William Hill amongst others, are finding that banks just don't want to lend at all at any rate. Therefore they have had to go to shareholders and ask them for money. Will Hill are asking for £350m, they have also cut their dividend.

These sorts of issues are one of the reasons that we are entering probably the most difficult economic period for at least a generation. It's a bit like being given an umbrella when its sunny only for the umbrella to be taken away when it starts to rain. Just at the moment companies need funding to fulfill their basic needs, the system is rejecting them; even perfectly sounds requests. It's a huge economic issue.

It was also interesting to note that William Hill Interactive, basically their web site, produced operating profits of £54.6m, up 7% on the previous year. That's nearly double Betfair's profit.

Bet Bull betting exchange closes

The company announced its withdrawal, which it said was necessary in order to streamline business and focus on its core retail betting markets in Germany and Spain.

“We no longer see exchange betting as part of our core business,” said Simon Bold, director of Betbull Holding, in a company statement. “We strongly believe in the durability of the retail model and see great potential for growth in the European markets.”

Mr. Bold said that the company will give attention to Germany -- where he said Betbull has achieved sustained growth and healthy margins -- as well as Madrid, which Betbull gained access to last October.

"Windy hedge" for Cheltenham

If I ever buy a horse this would be a good name! But this isn't the name of a horse. Regular readers will know that Cheltenham last year was a bit of a mare. They abadoned racing on Wednesday then bundled in those races to the Thursday and Friday. That made things mighty tough. Sky bet have offered up a bet this year for odds that racing will be abandoned in the event of a windy day. Odds offered were 150-1. Based upon how much it cost me last year I may have a few quid on that. That said, it shows how unlikely a repeat performance is!

Broken hearts and markets are correlated

While waiting at an airport recently, I picked up a copy of wired magazine and found this excellent article. It reminded me of a blog I read way back in 2005 that discussed the same issue but in the future tense. Some great hindsight from the blogger back in 2005 who basically predicted the sort of issues this formula could throw up if mis-used.

Next generation trading tools

When I first designed Bet Angel there were so many things I wanted in there. Back then even things like fill or kill orders , graphing, stop losses just didn't exist but I knew how important they would be, so we were pleased to have helped pioneer a path through the markets.

You will be pleased to know that we have been quietly working away in the background on the next generation of trading tools. We are fortunate that we haven't had to play catchup in the market and therefore have been able to spend more time focusing on new things that will help you achieve more. As all of us are active in the market each day, we are constantly playing around with data and ideas in an attempt to find stuff that is useful and delivers you an edge. A lot of these are failures though and out of ten attempts we often find nine blind alleys. Despite this we constantly pursue as many paths as we can as the odd few really throw up some interesting opportuntities.

We look forward to bringing these to you, till then, hush hush.

Biggest premium charge?

I was passed some information this morning that indicates that at least one Betfair customer paid fees of somewhere in the region of £200-250k in the last three months of the year! Puts things into perspective doesn't it? It also makes you wonder just how much money is being generated in premium charges? It will be interesting to see where it ends up on Betfair's next annual report. If they are spending it to get new customers then that'll be great, but I have to say it doesn't feel to me like the horse racing markets are growing in all honesty. We'll have to wait for answer to both I guess.

Bookmakers lose £1m in betting coup

Bit of a classic this one. I didn't hear about this until it had happened but it must have been worth a few quid to those that spotted the opportunity.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/article5792211.ece

Champions league is back - Inter vs Man Utd

Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.

Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won't be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.

The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to Inter. Looking at my stats I reckon Man Utd are a little too short in the market. Fair value should be around 3.05-3.35. Under 2.5 goals should be around 1.56 for a match with these characteristics, so that looks long term value.

If you are interested in how I view this match and the most sensible way to trade it, view the following video. The following video was made using Soccer Mystic. Soccer Mystic is free when you sign up to Bet Angel.

WBX goes mobile

WBX have launched WBX Mobile by giving punters a chance to win a BlackBerry Storm or Apple iPhone by using the mobile version, which is available on any mobile device with an Internet browser.

“In the past few months we have received a number of enquiries from our members requesting this service,” said Iain Turner, the public relations manager for World Bet Exchange, in a statement. “The launch of WBX Mobile is just the start of the improvements and innovations for 2009.”

More liquidity would be a much better innovation IMHO! I'm not entirely sure what WBX's USP is to be honest. If somebody from WBX would like to contact me, happy to post it up here.

Battle of the blogs

In 2007 one Bet Angel user took on the grand challenge of trying to trade a small starting bank to £100,000. Not to be outdone, several new blogs have appeared this year trying to up the ante. Two of the more proninant ones are pre-off racing traders John, who is aiming to reach a profit of £100,000 for the year, and Adam, who has a target of £150,000! Both are well into their blogs and looking in good shape.

Not all bloggers do so well and it's worth remembering that, but most blogs generally make interesting reading and give you an insight into the mindset of others. Trading can be a lonely existence and listening to others going through the mill helps you to be reflective. Don't get envious of others though, if they are doing much better than you. Envy is the most destructive emotion I know. Don't let it get a hold of you as its very counter productive.

The best thing to do is to learn to take encouragement from others achievements and use that to put new energy into your activities. That's a path that led me to meet the two richest people in the world and I am much better off for that experiance and journey. That never would have happened if I was just envious of them. I know its a cliche, but always think positive!

Bet Angel - You tube channel

For some time now Bet Angel users have been uploading trading videos to You Tube. One of the earlier videos has now had nearly 17,000 views.

Late last year we thought it would be a good idea to group them together into one area for you, so we set up a channel at http://www.youtube.com/betangeltv. We have also been uploading videos of our own for your referance.You tube can be a bit of a challenge as the video image is so small so we have replicated the videos on our site at higher resolution.

If you have any videos you would like us to add to the channel just drop support a note and we will add you in. In the meantime you can visit the channel at the link mentioned in this post.

A good welcome back

You always wonder how you will adjust to getting back behind the desk, especially as the guys warned me that the BetfairAPI has had its problems recently. It turns out I shouldn't have concerned myself, as my first trading day since returning from holiday proved just fine. No real problems to report and a fairly clean run with only three losses. Two tiny losses and one bigger one. My biggest concern was jet lag. I tried to get some sleep on the flight back, but with three restless children that was never a realistic possibility. I was pretty much wiped out by the end of the day though and had an early night. A good result for the first day back.

Having read the noise on a couple of blogs about proof, I have uploaded a video of this P&L as well. View it here.

Fully re-charged

After the events of last year and early this year it was great to take a complete break from things, well as good as a complete break. I did do a little work while away but that was to test some new stuff we have been working on to meet a couple of collegues while away, but purely for leisure time. Other than that pretty much no email or contact with my day to day world. I have returned to my desk fully recharged! In hindsight, this was a complete break that has been long overdue. I'd recommend one if you haven't had one for a while.

If you aim to take a break, you are running out of time. We have Cheltenham soon, then Aintree before the flat season starts, things are starting to warm up again. I think I timed the break pretty well with the weather in the UK so bad. When I left it was all snow and ice. While away, the only ice I saw was ice cream. I took the opportunity to catch up on some reading while away so I have a mind full of fresh ideas.

If you haven't got a reply from an email you recently sent, I'll get back to you in the next week as I work through things.

Create your own custom tools

As you already should know, you can link Bet Angel to a spreadsheet. This gives you massive benefits as you can custom create your own view of the market and design your own trading tools. In fact it is possible to trade automatically using a spreadsheet and some imagination.

Using the link to a spreadsheet you can do pretty much anything, it's a very popular part of Bet Angel and underused in my opinion. I am always fiddling with it to create new ideas for trading tools, views of the market and to understand market dynamics. If you have more than one screen available use it to focus on particular activity you are interested in.

In the latest version of Bet Angel we have bundled a specialist charting tool. Using this tool you can view and create your own unique look at the market. I recently used exactly this spreadsheet to help design the advanced charting tool we have on Bet Angel. If you are into fiddling around and looking for a new view of the market goto the Excel tab on Bet Angel and link to a spreadsheet. In the template directory you will find the 'normal' spreadsheet and the specialist charting spreadsheet, complete with trend lines.

Enjoy!

Stock market vs. Sports market

As many of you know I have a deep background in financial markets and it was this, and a lifelong interest in gambling markets, that brought me to betting exchanges. I thought you may be interested in why I am still active on both the betting and the stock exchanges and the differences I see between them.

At face value, the two markets are not too dissimilar. You can bet on value or price direction on both and betting on both has been around for some time. One issue you have in the stock market though is the high level of transaction costs. If you scratch a trade on the stock market you don't exit at zero, you exit for zero less costs, these stack up pretty quickly. Also, prices in financial markets can fall and rise at the same time, but in a betting market that's impossible. IMHO It's much easier to frame a betting market. One aspect of financial markets is that you can leverage your positions; nobody would let you do this in a sports market for sure!

Some big positives for the sports exchanges is that you get the markets lining up in nice parcels. No need to have the phone on 24.7 to trade them. Just nip in and out when you wish. You also have events that can easily be modelled and managed. No government, war or economic stimulus package will affect the price of the 18:20 at Kempton. Well it shouldn't at least. Also, they are perfect for smaller bank sizes. I can perform miracles with, say, £1,000 but less so with £1m!! From a return on capital perspective I haven't seen a market so suitable for turning large pecentages on small bank sizes. The opposite tends to be true in financial markets.

Returning high %'s on small amounts is great, but you can't do this for long before you run into the other issue, managing larger sums of money. I keep trying to find innovative ways to increase the amount of money I put through sports exchanges but I don't have to innovate to do that on the stock market.

The big difference for me between the two is that I am not a short term trader on the stock market; I am a good old fashioned investor.

Why am I an investor and not a trader on the stock market?

You and I can sell each other bits of a company on the stock market and if I am smarter than you I will gain what you lose, but ultimately a company is only worth what it throws off in cash over time. No matter how much you and I buy and sell that to each other the value of company stock can only be created on the basis of what the underlying business earns. From an investors perspective the most tangible manifestation of this is dividends. Imagine a trading position where you benefit not only from a price rise but also by getting paid for holding it! This is a good reason to invest long term. You also get the benefit of not needing to be at my screen 24/7. I don't worry that much about what happens in the next few minutes, days or months. I only look to buy companies that have a decent yield and one that will be stable over time. By focusing on yield you often get the double effect of earning higher dividends and seeing the price rise in response.

In a nutshell that's how I put my longer term money to use. It also gives me the freedom to mix and match my responsibilities with ease. Most of my time on the stock market is spent reading, researching or speaking to people. You can do that anywhere at your own leisure, it helps if you are interested in it. I actually do very little buying or selling, the complete opposite of what you may expect and nothing like those 'million dollar traders' that are the typical stereotype of a modern participant on the stock market. More than one way to skin a cat as they say.

For your interest I have linked to an article I wrote about dividends a few years ago for Shares magazine.

http://www.betangel.com/downloads/060209-Shares-Vol%208-Issue%2006-P45.pdf

One for the conspiracy theorists!

Was it my imagination or did the live TV feed from the Everton vs Liverpool FA Cup match break down right at the critical moment? One minute the match was dragging on to a 0-0 draw and penalties. The next minute the feed is lost and we see adverts and the like. During the 'outage' Everton score. Goodness knows how many minutes without a goal and then an outage in the seconds a goal goes in. A coincidence I am sure, but a huge problem for in-play traders and something to keep the conspiracy theorists chattering for some time I think. If you want a fast feed for a football match, listen to the radio, that's the best way. Watch the pictures on TV but listen to the radio and you will get the best of both worlds.

Gamble landed

Whenever I see the red, white and black colours of a Curley leisure horse on the card, I know it's going to be an interesting market. It was no different tonight at Kempton. Tusculum was 'backed off the boards' and eventually accounted for 76% of the total volume in the market. You would think most of the other horses only had one leg or something. Anyhow, Tusculum won.

Hardest speech ever

As you know I have done a lot of public speaking in my time. My most nervous moment was probably addressing the chair in front of 20,000 people in Nebraska. However that paled into insignificance when I stood up to say a final goodbye to my Dad at his funeral yesterday.

I think I was quite fortunate to have had plenty of time to say goodbye to him, but it was still a very difficult moment. I had a sheet of notes to read from, or if needed for somebody else to read from, but it wasn't necessary in the end. I couldn't see them anyway! Anyhow with the speech carefully delivered I could relax and contemplate my Dad's life. I'll never forget the last time we spoke, as I said goodbye he gave me his trademark smile and wink of the eye. A nice way to remember him. The following day he was in a very poor way and we stayed with him right through to his final moments, we knew it wouldn't be long but it's really agonising going through that. My thoughts will always go out to those that have to experiance the same thing.

Surprise of the day at the funeral was when my old drinking buddy turned up with his mum, after having read the announcement in the local newspaper. We were great friends and his mum treated me like a son so it was really touching to see them. It sent us all into tears.

Any how, now that's over I am going to take a break and spend some time with my family before returning to work proper towards the end of the month. I look forward to returning with batteries fully charged.

January wrap up

January suffered the most disruption I think I have have seen to the racing card in all the nine years I have been active on the exchanges. I guess this sort of thing is startling to the 'new age' punter but it must have happened before. Weather forecasters seem to be touting around the worst / coldest January in 18 years so I guess will we accept that as the likely frequency of occurance. If you've had a bit of a mare, I wouldn't worry, hopefully you will have a long time to wait for similar disruption in the future.

Trading a variety of sports is your best bet during times like these. Obviously we can help a lot with tools like Soccer Msytic. But you can transplant your trading to other sports as well. Obviously Tennis has been a highlight in January, though I couldn't participate for obvious reasons. But also sports like Greyhound racing, typically the televised events, are not too different to trade.

For me January looked like it could be a disaster. With the poor weather and personal circumstances less than idea I felt I was probably heading for my worst month for some time. Remarkably though I have ended the month only just short of last years total.

For February we typically reach a low point in the year. There isn't a great deal of major action around in the depths of winter and even the champions league waits till the end of the month. So after the loss of my father and the prospect of a less than exciting month I've decided to take a short break to recharge my batteries for what promises to be a busy year. I'll post a bit less in February as I take some time off to sort out things and take a well earned break.

There are opportuntities around in February but they are clearly there if you are willing to work hard enough. In my absence your chances wouldn't have exactly diminished! Good luck with your activity in February.

Being contrary

Have a look at the following chart from the 14:15 at Lingfield on Saturday. This is a very big steamer. Of course in hindsight you would say, 'If I backed it at X and laid it at Y I would have made £Z'. Most people would look at this chart and back it high and lay it low. After all backing at 3 and laying at 2 would net you a 100% profit on your stake and fully greened up 50%.

Steamer at Lingfield

I often look at these moves and do the opposite. It's easy to get sucked into such a move and follow it. You can see that it has come in a long way, the market likes it, but also it has accounted for a disproportionate amount of volume, £239k out of £284k for the total market! But of course it can't go all the way into 1.01, that would be impossible. So at some point people have to stop backing it and the price will rebound. That's exactly what happened today. Catching this move also benefits you in another way. When the price rebounds, it tends to do so with a lot of vigour as most people in the market can't help but follow the trend. When the trend breaks, everybody heads for the door and there lies your opportunity.

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