How odds really move

Over many years I've modelled a number of different events to see how odds should move in those particular sports. I actually started doing this some time ago in my attempt to win the football pools. Therefore, the first ever market I tried to model was a football match. Back then I was just hunting for the reasons that a match ended in a draw. Over the years I expanded my knowledge to include a whole range of things and in much more complexity, detail and accuracy than I could ever have imagined. I actually enjoy doing this, regardless of any financial reward.

Somebody phoned me recently and asked me some questions about how odds move in a football match. Their questions surrounded backing 0-0, which incidentally is an very risky proposition. The main issue is that, on average, a goal occurs around every 35-38mins or so (subject to the match you are looking at). But the standard deviation on this is a whooping 25 mins! You would need to be very lucky to time an exit from this trade. Skill or exit strategies don't really figure if you hold your position for any length of time, one goal and you are stuffed! During our conversation I explained something that the caller felt was very odd. So true to my word, here is a video explaining why odds can sometimes behave in a counter intuitive manner in a football match.