A classic case for lay the draw?

Both champions league matches tonight are interesting from the viewpoint that somebody HAS to score. Liverpool have a mountain to climb after their comprehensive defeat at home and they must score to have any chance. They have nothing to lose. Much depends on whether Chelsea kill the game off or simply pack men behind the ball. I'm not sure what Hiddinks instructions will be? It's quite possible they will just try to frustrate Liverpool and then catch them on the break when Liverpool push too far forward. Given history, this doesn't look like a good plan as one early goal could really fire Liverpool up. I suspect though that Chelsea will not be adventerous for the same reason.

The market is priced for 2.58 goals and a slight advantage to Chelsea, but only slight.

Bayern Munich however need a bigger miracle and playing at home must surely score at least once! I suspect this will be all out Bayern attack as it doesn't really matter if they can't score. Barca will surely just sit back and try and nick a goal if they can and kill the tie. Whatever happens, Bayern will be desperate to make amends for some poor performances and will almost certainly do anything to get a goal or two. Of the two matches this is the one most likely to see a goal and the market has priced in at least three. You can't have half a goal each so this looks like a good candidate for a lay the draw and trade out type position. There you go, I've cursed it now!

Make sure you use Soccer Mystic to work out your risk and profit scenarios for these games.