Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Champions league - Past performance

When you read a financial sales letter or advertisment, they always put that little caveat in that "past performance is not an indicator of future performance", how apt in the current environment!!! You may be interested to know this often afflicts the betting market also.

It seems to be a classic case of placing too much reliance on past activity. What you often tend to find is that if something unusual has happened recently people think it has a higher chance of happening again. It's like watching people playing roulette and upping their stake, just because red has come in six times in a row.

For a more recent example look at tonights champions league. Based upon the free scoring quarter finals you may find that tonights market gets mis-priced at the higher end of the market, i.e. it makes sense to lay and vice versa. I'm tempted to put this into use tonight on the correct score market. It may not work tonight but I am pretty sure that over the long term I will end ahead as that's always been the case.

You may want to try using the ducthing to a profit target option to take advantage of the many opportunities and potential strategies in play on the correct score market. I've embedded a video of this function. This is where I will be lurking tonight.