Sunday, January 4, 2009

Southampton vs Man Utd

As some of you know I wear the millstone around my neck of being a Southampton follower. It is with trepidation that the two teams meet again today the first time since I last saw them play together in May 2005 when Southampton were relegated from the top flight for the first time in 30 odd years.

I tend not to bet or trade on favoured teams as this can poorly influence your decision making so I will give this match a miss and cower from behind the sofa as Saints probably get stuffed silly by the Man U second string.

From the timing perspective it couldn't be worse for Southampton. Their strategy this season is to pretty much to up the youngsters to the first string to save money. All the decent players have been sold or loaned out. Unfortunately it will probably end up costing them in the long run as anything above relegation this season will be a result. Running a football club is a charity not a business, so trying to keep it profitable generally puts you on a negative spiral. Perhaps if the Chairman hadn't vetoed a takeover before the credit crunch things would be different. As it is they are really low on confidence this year especially at home. I can't see them putting up much resistance against Man U. Curiously they also seem to particularly bad when on the TV!

Don't lay Southampton as the price is pretty big and in the event of no goal the price will move against you pretty quickly. So your decision boils down to whether or not you back or lay Man U. The market has priced in three goals and expects Man U to score , on average, two more than Southampton. If you think that's value back Man U, if not lay them.