Saturday, December 6, 2008

Another exchange bites the dust

Hmm, It seems the market is undergoing quite a bit of change all of a sudden. In my opinion these are obvious signs of a response to the global economic problems we are facing at the moment.

Imagine that you have invested in fringe projects over the years with the hope of some payoff in the future. This isn't a problem as there is lots of money sloshing around and speculative projects are considered an adequate risk. But when the money starts to dry up, core business deteriorates and expenses need to be cut; It usually these outlying projects that go first.

Well this is my interpretation of what has happened at Spreadfair. I used them on the odd occasion but never seriously and it was only while reading Scott Fergusons excellent blog, http://sportismadeforbetting.blogspot.com/, that I spotted they had gone. I doubt they were a very large part of the market but its quite likely that during times like these ,weaker players will be shaken from the market. On the wider view I can't see that lack of disposable income for consumers will be good for the betting market in general. But a couple of factors will mask this drop in betting revenue IMHO.

First the propensity of people to migrate to online betting platforms, it's cheaper and more convenient to bet from home on your broadband, than venture to a shop. Second, the internationalisation of the exchange business. Both factors should benefit stronger players and support any loss of growth in the market in general.

Given the outlook for the economy and the negative feedback cycle we are now in, I don't think there is any business that can completely survive without any impact, but online businesses look in a better position than most.