Thursday, October 30, 2008

Arsenal 4 - 4 Spurs

Remarkable score line you may think. But wind the clock back four years ago and the return leg of this local derby ended 4-5. I remember that match very well, as I was in the thick of it. Being the record keeper I am I still have the data from this match so I have put up an image of the Arsenal implied probability on this post. This fixture seems to throw up some off the scale results on quite a regular basis. While that's entertaining it makes it difficult to know what to do. This time around though no stress was induced. Because I had a good day, I treated myself to the evening off, testing aside.

The more remarkable thing about a local derby is their propensity to throw up draws. I did some research on this over 20 years ago and if you plot distance between home grounds there is a direct correlation between distance and draws. The spirit to remain unbeaten is strong between local rivals. You didn't need maths to confirm that, but it's nice to know that statistics back it up. It's also interesting to see the 'new manager effect' is still benefiting Spurs. It is likely to negatively impact Portsmouth.