Friday, September 19, 2008

Who will will the Ryder cup?

That's easy, it could be the US or Europe. But seriously, this is a tricky one to work out. Also , you have the tie. That is where my attention is focused.

In all time or points limited events you will always find a lot more volatility towards the end of the event than at the start, so the first point is that I will only start taking a real interest in the Ryder Cup as it develops. Any early gain or loss will move prices but not significantly, unless there is a whitewash of course. It would be great to make a call on how either team will play but golf is such a tight game, where an errant swing can cost you dearly, that the only sure thing as we head through the tournament, is that a dropped shot is likely to be critical at some point.

Of course with a 'three runner field' picking the winner in such a tight contest is difficult, trading the tie has to be a good option. Also trading the tie towards the end of the event is where you are most likely to find the most profitable and least risky proposition. By laying it you are saying that either team will win. As there have only been two ties since 1927 that looks a good choice. I'm not saying lay the draw now, but when the match is underway and nearer it's concluesion, if it is a tight contest, one mistake will make the draw shoot right out.