Predictably irrational

Thinking is work also, don't let anybody tell you anything different. Of course, I say this because I do a lot of thinking! Most of this is spawned by stuff that I read. I am currently reading: -

http://www.predictablyirrational.com/

I have a number of similar books and the reason is for that is that the psychology of people directly influences markets. It was how I won the football pools, what shaped my investing criteria in the stock market and I use the same in my activity in gambling markets. People do strange things for strange reasons and any insight I can get into that is always going to be useful.

I think the recent Betfair premium charges may be a case in point. When you remove or amend an incentive people adapt. As Betfair have targetted, in their words, very particular types of customers; those customer will respond. They have to either mitigate the effects of the charge or make more to offset it. Both those activities will prove disruptive to Betfair IMHO.

Anyhow, This book isn't light reading but its very interesting and as such I recommend it as a good read.