Murray vs Federer - US Open final

Urghh, not another late night. I can't cope with many more early mornings and late nights. I also ache because I have started at a new Gym. More about that some other time.

A few years ago I started work on a Tennis model. I finished it last year and used it at the Australian open. It works in a similar way to Soccer Mystic allowing you to look ahead and see how things will affect the odds. It's useful to understand what risk you are taking before you take it.

I may not get these spot on as I don't know who is serving first etc. but given the current market prices if Federer wins the opening game I expect the odds to drop to 1.49, if Murray does they will go out to 1.77. There is around a 75% chance of Murray winning a game on service and an 80% chance of Federer doing the same. If Federer wins the first set his odds will jump to around 1.25, if Murray does, Federer drifts to 2.25.

These stats are a little subjective before the off as you don't know if both with conform to the underlying form. I suspect Federer is the more nervous of the two and Murray has little to lose. Should be a great match!